In their latest financial report, Take-Two Interactive reported 4th quarter and full year results for fiscal year 2012. The company reported that overall net revenue fell to $825.8m from $1.14bn the previous year and net losses came in at $107.7m compared to a $53.8m profit in 2011. On a good note, digital content rose from 9% of net revenue to 13%. All in all, seems like FY 12 wasn’t that great right?
The company saw numbers that declined in a year where the major hits were L.A. Noire and NBA 2K12, which both did well but could not duplicate the ridiculous success of Red Dead Redemption and so a bit of a decline could be expected. Why then with no other major titles ANNOUNCED is Take-Two predicting that FY 13 will not only be better than FY 12 but better than FY 11 as well. At this point, Take-Two is predicting that this fiscal year they will make between $1.75 and $1.85 billion dollars in net revenue. So they made $1.14 billion in FY11 (Red Dead Redemption), went down to $825.8 million in FYI12 (L.A. Noire, NBA 2K12) and in this fiscal year which ends March 2013 they are projecting to make approximately $1.85 billion. That’s a huge jump.
So at this point, Max Payne 3 is the biggest title that Take-Two has on the books and while it has done well and NBA 2K13 will probably do well, those titles as their biggest games of the year will not generate that kind of revenue. Even Borderlands 2 which should do great won’t do THAT well and won’t be out long enough before FY13 ends in March. In fact, with games like XCOM (FPS) and Bioshock Infinite already delayed, they don’t have any game that they could pull out of their portfolio that could generate that kind of revenue. Well that is, they only have 1. The only game that we can think of that could generate that kind of revenue for Take-Two is Grand Theft Auto V, nothing else comes close. Take-Two’s CEO Strauss Zelnick all but confirmed it when he said that the increase in revenue is attributed to “yet to be announced” titles.
Even if the long-awaited Agent finally made it to retail, it’s a brand new IP and Take-Two couldn’t be confident enough in its performance to raise its projections that much. No my friends, to meet their lofty projections its going to take a well established IP and unless they have turned around the next Red Dead Redemption this fast, GTA V is the only title that have in their portfolio that has the kind of juice to generate such massive sales.
If I was a betting man, I would say that we get the official confirmation of a 2012 GTA V release at E3 2012 with a release date set for somewhere between August and October.